Out in the furthest reaches of our Solar System, twenty
times further from the Sun than Neptune, a massive unknown planet may be
lurking. At ten times the mass of the Earth, the gravitational pull of the
massive planet has herded the orbits of an obscure group of icy objects into a
strange alignment. Last January, Caltech scientists Mike Brown and Konstantin
Batygin announced the likely existence of this new planet, dubbed Planet Nine,
in a paper published in the Astronomical Journal. Though the mysterious planet
has yet to be seen through a telescope, evidence of its existence has been
growing for years. The next major Solar System discovery is upon us. When
astronomers finally capture an image of Planet Nine, it will mark the only
discovery of a new planet in our Solar System in living memory. But why do we
think Planet Nine is really there?
***
Other than Earth, the first six planets known to humankind
were discovered simply by looking up. The closest five, Mercury, Venus, Mars,
Jupiter, and Saturn were visible to ancient humans with the unaided eye for
thousands of years. Our ancestors, reading the skies night after night, noticed
them as bright lights that moved from night to night against the backdrop of
fixed stars and named them planets, from the Greek word for wanderer. At this
time, the Sun and Moon were also considered planets, for they too wandered
among the stars, but as the centuries passed, we came to better understand our
place in the universe. In 1543, Copernicus published his heliocentric theory,
correctly positioning the planets as our celestial siblings orbiting the Sun
just as the Earth does.
The next big discovery in the solar system came in 1781,
when Englishman William Hershel observed Uranus, a planet invisible to the
unaided eye, with a massive homemade telescope. He meticulously studied the new
planet, night after night, until he realized that it too wandered through the
starry skies. Though Uranus had been spotted by previous generations of
astronomers, because of its great distance from the sun, the planet’s wandering
motion had never been observed, so Uranus was simply assumed to be a star. Even
Hershel was skeptical: he initially believed the seventh planet was a
comet—after all, no new planets had ever been documented in recorded history—but
careful study of its orbit allowed astronomers to conclude Uranus was a planet
in its own right.
Neptune and Planet Nine are different. Just as you can infer
the presence of a breeze on a windy day by observing tossing trees and dancing
leaves outside your window, scientists first detected Neptune and Planet Nine
not through direct observation, but through their effects on objects that can
be seen. In the 1840s, English and French astronomers predicted Neptune’s
location after observing anomalous deviations in the orbit of Uranus. Again,
the astronomy community was skeptical at first. But, using mathematics and the
laws of physics, the planet’s location in the sky was pinpointed, and
telescopes appropriately aligned to the predicted spot quickly sighted the
eighth planet, just as promised.
Humanity’s exploration of the outer reaches of the Solar
System didn’t end with Neptune. In the last century, astronomers began probing
a region of space called the Kuiper Belt, a swath of tiny icy objects just beyond
the orbit of Neptune. The giant blue planet dominates the Kuiper Belt
gravitationally, shaping the orbits of the nearby Kuiper Belt Objects. For
instance, the Kuiper Belt’s most famous resident, Pluto, is locked into its
orbit by a gravitational relationship with Neptune known as resonance. For
every two orbits Pluto makes, Neptune makes three. This synchronization
regulates Pluto’s motion along its orbit, just as a parent regulates the motion
of a child on a playground swing by pushing in harmony with the swing.
While looking for Kuiper Belt Objects, astronomers made a
peculiar discovery—Sedna, a strange, icy body about half the size of Pluto.
Sedna orbits the sun in a highly elliptical path that takes it from twice to
thirty times as far from the Sun as Neptune. At these distances, Sedna is much
too far away to be a member of the Kuiper Belt, floating peacefully billions of
miles away from Neptune’s region of influence. Usually, the smaller members of
the Solar System start out with circular orbits and, over time, find themselves
on extremely elliptical orbits after close encounters with massive planets.
Like a slingshot, big planets inject energy into the orbits of small bodies
during close encounters and send them rocketing into strange new orbits or even
out of the Solar System entirely. But no known object could have explained how
Sedna came to have such a strange orbit, since it never came close to any known
planets. So, for years, astronomers assumed its existence spoke to a freak
event like a close gravitational encounter with a passing star—a one in a
billion anomaly.
Yet similar objects kept being discovered. In astronomer’s
parlance, these new Sedna-like objects all had high perihelia and high major
axes. That is, their closest approaches (perihelia) to the Sun were well beyond
the orbit of Neptune, and the long (major) axes of their oval orbits were many
times larger than their shorter (minor) axes. In other words, the
objects had highly elliptical orbits, and they never got very close to Neptune
or the Sun. Most telling of all, the long axes of the orbits of all of these
objects pointed roughly in the same direction, an eerie coincidence Mike Brown
described as “like having six hands on a clock all moving at different rates,
and when you happen to look up, they're all in exactly the same place.” Since
the chances of such an alignment occurring by accident are low, at about 0.007
percent, the Caltech scientists suspected something was missing from current
models of the solar system.
Orbital Parameters: The orbits of Sedna and two of its
sibling objects are shown above. Sedna’s important orbital parameters are
labelled. The long axes of the orbits of the three objects point in roughly the
same direction, a major clue to Batygin and Brown that our current models of
the Solar System might be missing something.
Unlike the astronomers who deduced the existence of Neptune
using meticulous calculations performed by hand, Brown and Batygin needed to
use computing power to make their predictions. Neptune’s discovery involved
predicting the location of an unknown planet based off of deviations in the
orbit of just one object, namely Uranus, but Planet Nine’s presence needed to
be inferred from a collection of objects with a complicated and chaotic
gravitational dynamic. In complex systems like this one, it is much faster and
easier to attempt to study the system using the brute force of computation.
Brown and Batygin developed a simulation that used trial and error in order to
deduce the placement of the hypothetical planet in the solar system. By
figuring out which arrangements of planets didn’t produce the observed
configuration of the solar system, the researchers could narrow down in which
regions of the solar system the new planet might be located.
One run of the simulation might go like this: a possible
orbit for Planet Nine is specified in detail, and placed into the known model
of the solar system. The simulation begins, and the computer predicts the
positions of all the planets, moons, and minor solar system bodies over the
course of millions, or even billions, of years. When the simulation ends, the
outcome is compared to the observable parameters of the solar system today,
including the positions of the planets, the alignment of Sedna and its
siblings. Sometimes, the end result is dramatically different from the solar
system today. In the wrong alignment, an interaction with Planet Nine could
fling one of the other eight planets from the solar system via the slingshot
effect. Usually, the differences are more subtle. There might not be any
Sedna-like objects, or they are not aligned anymore, or a subtle detail of
their orbits doesn’t match the real state of Solar System. If there are any
differences between the simulation’s prediction and the observed state of the
solar system, the initial guess for Planet Nine’s orbit is ruled out.
Batygin and Brown first hypothesized that Planet Nine would
be located on the same side of the Solar System as the anomalous Sedna-like
objects. They reasoned those long major axes that puzzled astronomers ought to
be pointed towards the location of the unknown planet, as if Planet Nine were
shepherding Sedna and company into alignment. However, this initial guess
didn’t fit the model perfectly, producing a different alignment than the one
observed. Then, in a lucky guess, the researchers started the simulation with
Planet Nine on the opposite side of the sun. In this new configuration, with
the long axes of the objects’ orbits pointing away from Planet Nine, the output
of the simulation perfectly matched what we see in the sky today.
A Possible Orbit for Planet Nine: Batygin and Brown’s model
places Planet Nine on the opposite side of the sun from Sedna and its siblings.
The long axes of the Sedna-like objects’ orbits point in the opposite direction
as the long axis of Planet Nine’s orbit.
Placing Planet Nine on the opposite side of the Solar System
from Sedna allows for a stable and accurate configuration of orbits. The model
also had an unexpected consequence: it predicted a new class of objects
astronomers should expect to see. This new group should contain small bodies
with orbits perpendicular to the orbits of Sedna and its siblings. Finding
these predicted objects would be a key test for the Planet Nine hypothesis. A
scientific model can be useful for explaining observed phenomena, but it
derives most of its power from its ability to correctly predict new aspects of
a situation. Brown and Batygin scoured the catalogue of known minor members of
the outer solar system, and, just as the model suggested, four objects with the
predicted orbital properties were found.
***
Simulations can only take astronomers so far. Though Batygin
and Brown have deduced by simulation thus far that Planet Nine is ten times
heavier than Earth and completes its orbit in tens of thousands of years, the
planet technically hasn’t been discovered, as no astronomer or telescope has
spotted it. Direct detection is crucial in hunting for unknown planets in our
Solar System. After the discovery of Neptune, astronomers sought to find more
planets through similar indirect means. In the early twentieth century,
supposed deviations were again found in the orbit of Uranus, leading to the
prediction of Planet X. The search for that planet uncovered Pluto. But Pluto
turned out to be too small to impact Uranus’s orbit in any way, and the
deviations were later discovered to be observational errors. Direct imaging of
Planet Nine should be feasible for a planet this close; compared to extrasolar
planets orbiting other stars, Planet Nine is in our cosmic backyard. We should
be able to spot it. So why haven’t we found it yet?
One possibility is that Planet Nine has already been
spotted. Just as Uranus had been mistaken for a star before Herschel discovered
its wandering motion in the sky, Planet Nine might be misclassified in some
comprehensive sky survey as an obscure star. Planet Nine would be far enough
away for this to be a possibility. Even with the most powerful telescopes, it
takes 24 hours for Planet Nine to move noticeably far enough to rule out the
possibility that the distant point of light is a fixed star. And there are
further complications. A large swath of Planet Nine’s orbital path takes it
through the plane of the Milky Way. If the planet is located in these
unfortunate regions, astronomers will be searching for a faint, wandering dot
against the backdrop of some of the most densely star-packed regions of the
night sky. The busy background will make it difficult to spot the planet, like
looking for a tiny ant crawling across a static-filled television screen.
Despite these challenges, we must continue the search for
Planet Nine. While Brown and Batygin hope their prediction is correct, the only
way to know for sure is to take to the skies, scanning the predicted orbital
path and hoping for a glimpse of the elusive planet. If Planet Nine is really
there—and Brown predicts we will know the answer within the year—we will
recognize the planet the same way humanity has been recognizing planets for
thousands of years. Somewhere up there, Planet Nine may be a faint, faraway
dot, but it, just like the other planets in our Solar System, will be a
wanderer amongst the silent, distant stars.
***
Originally written for Caltech's science writing class, En/Wr 84.